In particular I've made the interface for beginning a new backtest a lot simpler by encapsulating a lot of the "boilerplate" code into a new Backtest class. I've also modified the system to be fully workable with multiple currency pairs. In this article I'll describe the new interface and show the usual Moving Average Crossover example on both GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
Systems that derive risk-based margin requirements deliver adequate assessments of the risk for complex derivative portfolios under small/moderate move scenarios. Such systems are less comprehensive when considering large moves in the price of the underlying stock or future. We have enhanced the basic exchange margin models with algorithms that consider the portfolio impact of larger moves up 30% (or even higher for extremely volatile stocks). This 'Extreme Margin Model' may increase the margin requirement for portfolios with net short options positions, and is particularly sensitive to short positions in far out-of-the-money options.
An extremely important requested feature for QSForex has been the ability to backtest over multiple days. Previously the system only supported backtesting via a single file. This was not a scalable solution as such a file must be read into memory and subsequently into a Pandas DataFrame. While the tick data files produced are not huge (roughly 3.5Mb each), they do add up quickly if we consider multiple pairs over periods of months or more.
(Note that the leverage shown in Trades 2 and 3 is available for Professional clients only. A Professional client is a client who possesses the experience, knowledge and expertise to make their own investment decisions and properly assess the risks that these incur. In order to be considered to be Professional client, the client must comply with MiFID ll 2014/65/EU Annex ll requirements.)
Now that we have discussed the longer term plan I want to present some of the changes I have made to the code since diary entry #2. In particular, I want to describe how I modified the code to handle the Decimal data-type instead of using floating point storage. This is an extremely important change as floating point representations are a substantial source of long-term error in portfolio and order management systems.
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Forex trading, also known as foreign exchange trading or currency trading, is where an investor tries to make money by buying and selling currencies on the foreign exchange market. Most investors will follow trends and use strategies to optimise their return. This is a very basic definition that does not reflect the full complexity of Forex trading; our free workshops are ideal for people who are unfamiliar with the concept and want to quickly achieve an in-depth insight into how this all works.
Robust Strategies - I have only demonstrated some simple random signal generating "toy" strategies to date. Now that we are beginning to create a reliable intraday forex trading system, we should start carrying out some more interesting strategies. Future diary entries will concentrate on strategies drawn from a mixture of "technical" indicators/filters as well as time series models and machine learning techniques.
Often, closing one losing position will take the margin level Forex higher than 5%, as it will release the margin of that position, so the total used margin will decrease and consequently the margin level will increase. The system often takes the margin level higher than 5%, by closing the biggest position first. If your other losing positions continue losing and the margin level reaches 5% once more, the system will just close another losing position.
In particular we will need strategy level metrics, including common risk/reward ratios such as the Sharpe Ratio, Information Ratio and Sortino Ratio. We will also need drawdown statistics including the distribution of the drawdowns, as well as descriptive stats such as maximum drawdown. Other useful metrics include the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and total return.
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