In particular I would like to make the system a lot faster, since it will allow parameter searches to be carried out in a reasonable time. While Python is a great tool, it's one drawback is that it is relatively slow when compared to C/C++. Hence I will be carrying out a lot of profiling to try and improve the execution speed of both the backtest and the performance calculations.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
The currency exchange rate is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another. It is always quoted in pairs like the EUR/USD (the Euro and the US Dollar). Exchange rates fluctuate based on economic factors like inflation, industrial production and geopolitical events. These factors will influence whether you buy or sell a currency pair.
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Trading on margin is extremely popular among retail Forex traders. It allows you to open a much larger position than your initial trading account would otherwise allow, by allocating only a small portion of your trading account as the margin, or collateral for the trade. Trading on margin also carries certain risks, as both your profits and losses are magnified.
Risk Management - Many "research" backtests completely ignore risk management. Unfortunately this is generally necessary for brevity in describing the rules of a strategy. In reality we -must- use a risk overlay when trading, otherwise it is extremely likely that we will suffer a substantial loss at some stage. This is not to say that risk management can prevent this entirely, but it certainly makes it less likely!
Let's presume that the market keeps on going against you. In this case, the broker will simply have no choice but to shut down all your losing positions. This limit is referred to as a stop out level. For example, when the stop out level is established at 5% by a broker, the trading platform will start closing your losing positions automatically if your margin level reaches 5%. It is important to note that it starts closing from the biggest losing position.
The script is currently hardcoded to generate forex data for the entire month of January 2014. It uses the Python calendar library in order to ascertain business days (although I haven't excluded holidays yet) and then generates a set of files of the form BBBQQQ_YYYYMMDD.csv, where BBBQQQ will be the specified currency pair (e.g. GBPUSD) and YYYYMMDD is the specified date (e.g. 20140112).
A Portfolio Margin account can provide lower margin requirements than a Margin account. However, for a portfolio with concentrated risk, the requirements under Portfolio Margin may be greater than those under Margin, as the true economic risk behind the portfolio may not be adequately accounted for under the static Reg T calculations used for Margin accounts. Customers can compare their current Reg T margin requirements for their portfolio with those current projected under Portfolio Margin rules by clicking the Try PM button from the Account Window in Trader Workstation (demo or customer account).
To date, we've been experimenting with the OANDA Rest API in order to see how it compared to the API provided by Interactive Brokers. We've also seen how to add in a basic portfolio replication element as the first step towards a proper event-driven backtesting system. I've also had some helpful comments on both previous articles (#1 and #2), which suggests that many of you are keen on changing and extending the code yourselves.
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For securities, the definition of margin includes three important concepts: the Margin Loan, the Margin Deposit and the Margin Requirement. The Margin Loan is the amount of money that an investor borrows from his broker to buy securities. The Margin Deposit is the amount of equity contributed by the investor toward the purchase of securities in a margin account. The Margin Requirement is the minimum amount that a customer must deposit and it is commonly expressed as a percent of the current market value. The Margin Deposit can be greater than or equal to the Margin Requirement. We can express this as an equation: